Quantitative Identification Study of Epidemic Risk in the Spatial Environment of Harbin City

Global pandemics pose a threat to the sustainable development of urban health. As urban spaces are important places for people to interact, overcrowding in these spaces can increase the risk of disease transmission, which is detrimental to the sustainable development of urban health. Therefore, it is crucial to identify potential epidemic risk areas and assess their risk levels for future epidemic prevention and the sustainable development of urban health. This article takes the main urban area of Harbin as the research object and conducts a cluster spatial analysis from multiple perspectives, including building density, functional density, functional mix, proximity, intermediacy, and thermal intensity, proposing a comprehensive identification method. The study found that (1) functional density is the most significant influencing factor in the formation of epidemic risks. Among various urban functions, commercial and public service functions have the strongest impact on the generation and spread of epidemic risks, and their distribution also has the widest impact range. (2) The spaces with higher levels of epidemic risk in Harbin are mainly distributed in the core urban areas, while the peripheral areas have relatively lower levels of risk, showing a decreasing trend from the center to the periphery. At the same time, the hierarchical distribution of urban space also has an impact on the spatial distribution of the epidemic. (3) The method proposed in this study played an important role in identifying the spatial aggregation of epidemic risks in Harbin and successfully identified the risk levels of epidemic distribution in the city. In spatial terms, it is consistent with high-risk locations of epidemic outbreaks, which proves the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method. These research findings are beneficial for measures to promote sustainable urban development, improve the city's epidemic prevention capabilities and public health levels, and make greater contributions to the sustainable development of global public health, promoting global health endeavors.

Quantitative resilience assessment of the network-level metro rail service's responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The metro rail system has proven to be the most efficient high-capacity carriers. During the unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) challenge, non-pharmaceutical interventions become a widely adopted strategy to limit physical movements and interactions. For situational awareness and decision support, data-driven analytics about serviceability are invaluable to metro agencies and decision-makers of cities. This paper presents a data-driven analytical framework that quantitatively evaluates COVID-19-caused resilience performance of metro rails. Several characteristics (e.g., vulnerability, robustness, rapidity, and degree to return) of the metro system's responses to the disturbance were identified and modeled with multivariate multiple regression. The applicability and rationality of the resilience evaluation model were validated by the metro transit data of the United States. The preliminary results disclosed that metro rail transit encountered more vulnerability (90.6%) in passenger trips than motorbus and light rail (around 70%). A set of statistical models were employed to disentangle the effect of socio-demographic variables and COVID-19-related factors on the metro transit. The disclosed emerging knowledge of resilience provides an in-depth understanding of mobility trends for the public and time-sensitive decision support for the policy effects, to further improve the service and management of the metro system under the spread of the epidemic.

Preliminary quantitative assessment of the multidimensional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Sustainable Development Goals.

The intersectoral impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on humanity raises concerns about its implications for sustainable development. Here, we examine a global quantitative impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) across all 17 goals using 65 proxy indicators across 72 countries collected from April 2020 to February 2021. Our data-driven analysis indicated that adverse impacts of the pandemic have been particularly concerned on gender equality (Goal 5), affordable and clean energy (Goal 7), decent work and economic growth (Goal 8), sustainable cities and communities (Goal 11), and responsible consumption and production (Goal 12) with global scores estimated to be -0.38, -0.21, -0.28, -0.22 and -0.16, respectively. Country income level was a variable that strongly differentiates the responses to the pandemic (e.g., lower incomes had 14 negative goals compared to 11 and 4 negative goals assigned to middle- and high-income countries, respectively). However, Goals 5 and 8 were highly impacted worldwide regardless of income status. Furthermore, countries that had already higher performance in SDGs were less impacted by the pandemic, highlighting the importance of progress on the SDGs in increasing societal resilience to pandemics. The findings provide insights into the reinforcement of recovery policies (e.g., protecting vulnerable groups and transitioning to a green economy) and a basis for a quantitative discussion on the sectors to be prioritized.

A Crisis-driven e-Learning Capability Maturity Model in the Age of COVID-19 : Process-based Maturity Assessment

The COVID-19 outbreak has put all businesses around the world at risk. The education sector, in particular, has fared exceptionally well during the COVID-19 storm, owing to its swift and resolute commitment to adopt new digital technology. In the COVID-19 age, the old teaching technique has become archaic, and many institutes have changed and moved their priority to e-Learning. The purpose of this research is to offer a crisis-aware Capability Maturity Model (CMM) for e-Learning. A quantitative assessment method based on the business process in e-Learning is presented to accomplish the proposed model. Finally, a case study designed explicitly for Shahid Beheshti University proves the model's applicability. © 2021 IEEE.

Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals in response to COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China.

OBJECTIVE: To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated hospitals, and the time interval from illness onset to diagnosis toward the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: We used SEIAR and SEIA-CQFH warehouse models to simulate the two-period epidemic in Wuhan and calculate the time dependent basic reproduction numbers (BRNs) of symptomatic infected individuals, asymptomatic infected individuals, exposed individuals, and community-isolated infected individuals. Scenarios that varied in terms of the maximum numbers of open beds in Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals, and the time intervals from illness onset to hospitals visit and diagnosis were considered to quantitatively assess the optimal measures. RESULTS: The BRN decreased from 4.50 on Jan 22, 2020 to 0.18 on March 18, 2020. Without Fangcang shelter hospitals, the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths would increase by 18.58 and 51.73%, respectively. If the number of beds in the designated hospitals decreased by 1/2 and 1/4, the number of cumulative cases would increase by 178.04 and 92.1%, respectively. If the time interval from illness onset to hospital visit was 4 days, the number of cumulative cases and deaths would increase by 2.79 and 6.19%, respectively. If Fangcang shelter hospitals were not established, the number of beds in designated hospitals reduced 1/4, and the time interval from visiting hospitals to diagnosis became 4 days, the cumulative number of cases would increase by 268.97%. CONCLUSION: The declining BRNs indicate the high effectiveness of the joint measures. The joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals are crucial and need to be rolled out globally, especially when medical resources are limited.

Application of DenTeach in Remote Dentistry Teaching and Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study.

In December 2019, an outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia occurred, and subsequently attracted worldwide attention when it bloomed into the COVID-19 pandemic. To limit the spread and transmission of the novel coronavirus, governments, regulatory bodies, and health authorities across the globe strongly enforced shut down of educational institutions including medical and dental schools. The adverse effects of COVID-19 on dental education have been tremendous, including difficulties in the delivery of practical courses such as restorative dentistry. As a solution to help dental schools adapt to the pandemic, we have developed a compact and portable teaching-learning platform called DenTeach. This platform is intended for remote teaching and learning pertaining to dental schools at these unprecedented times. This device can facilitate fully remote and physical-distancing-aware teaching and learning in dentistry. DenTeach platform consists of an instructor workstation (DT-Performer), a student workstation (DT-Student), advanced wireless networking technology, and cloud-based data storage and retrieval. The platform procedurally synchronizes the instructor and the student with real-time video, audio, feel, and posture (VAFP). To provide quantitative feedback to instructors and students, the DT-Student workstation quantifies key performance indices (KPIs) related to a given task to assess and improve various aspects of the dental skills of the students. DenTeach has been developed for use in teaching, shadowing, and practice modes. In the teaching mode, the device provides each student with tactile feedback by processing the data measured and/or obtained from the instructor's workstation, which helps the student enhance their dental skills while inherently learning from the instructor. In the shadowing mode, the student can download the augmented videos and start watching, feeling, and repeating the tasks before entering the practice mode. In the practice mode, students use the system to perform dental tasks and have their dental performance skills automatically evaluated in terms of KPIs such that both the student and the instructor are able to monitor student's work. Most importantly, as DenTeach is packaged in a small portable suitcase, it can be used anywhere by connecting to the cloud-based data storage network to retrieve procedures and performance metrics. This paper also discusses the feasibility of the DenTeach device in the form of a case study. It is demonstrated that a combination of the KPIs, video views, and graphical reports in both teaching and shadowing modes effectively help the student understand which aspects of their work needs further improvement. Moreover, the results of the practice mode over 10 trials have shown significant improvement in terms of tool handling, smoothness of motion, and steadiness of the operation.

The microclimatic impacts of urban spaces on the behaviour of pandemics between propagation and containment: Case study historic Cairo.

Although previous researches proved that frequent visits to urban spaces enhance the physical and mental health of people, most governments adopted lockdown policies after the outbreak of COVID-19. This decision has negatively impacted the wellbeing of communities and the livability of urban spaces. In this context the research questions how far the microclimatic conditions of urban space would influence its performance during respiratory pandemics? The study investigated this question through a dense literature survey including 47 scientific journal articles and governmental reports. The outputs were synthesized through a quantitative assessment framework. It detected the spatio-environmental parameters influencing the behaviour of respiratory pandemics in urban settings. To validate the framework's outputs, the research applied case study sampling for 3 urban spaces in historic Cairo. It generated digital simulations and computations addressing solar radiation, natural ventilation, air temperature, and humidity, besides space dimension and number of users. The results illustrated the areas of adequate and poor microclimatic performance during pandemics. They are demonstrated through numerical tables, digital simulations, and graphs. Eventually, a concluding assessment framework selected the optimum urban space performance to be engaged in the public life of historic Cairo during lockdown periods.

A Radiomics Signature to Quantitatively Analyze COVID-19-Infected Pulmonary Lesions.

Assessing pulmonary lesions using computed tomography (CT) images is of great significance to the severity diagnosis and treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-infected patients. Such assessment mainly depends on radiologists' subjective judgment, which is inefficient and presents difficulty for those with low levels of experience, especially in rural areas. This work focuses on developing a radiomics signature to quantitatively analyze whether COVID-19-infected pulmonary lesions are mild (Grade I) or moderate/severe (Grade II). We retrospectively analyzed 1160 COVID-19-infected pulmonary lesions from 16 hospitals. First, texture features were extracted from the pulmonary lesion regions of CT images. Then, feature preselection was performed and a radiomics signature was built using a stepwise logistic regression. The stepwise logistic regression also calculated the correlation between the radiomics signature and the grade of a pulmonary lesion. Finally, a logistic regression model was trained to classify the grades of pulmonary lesions. Given a significance level of α = 0.001, the stepwise logistic regression achieved an R (multiple correlation coefficient) of 0.70, which is much larger than Rα = 0.18 (the critical value of R). In the classification, the logistic regression model achieved an AUC of 0.87 on an independent test set. Overall, the radiomics signature is significantly correlated with the grade of a pulmonary lesion in COVID-19 infection. The classification model is interpretable and can assist radiologists in quickly and efficiently diagnosing pulmonary lesions. This work aims to develop a CT-based radiomics signature to quantitatively analyze whether COVID-19-infected pulmonary lesions are mild (Grade I) or moderate/severe (Grade II). The logistic regression model established based on this radiomics signature can assist radiologists to quickly and efficiently diagnose the grades of pulmonary lesions. The model calculates a radiomics score for a lesion and is interpretable and appropriate for clinical use.